Villarreal–Espanyol Under 3.5: 1.70+ · read
Casa Pia–Sporting Under 3.5: 1.55+ · read
| TRT | Match | Pick | Min. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20:00 | 🇹🇷 Konyaspor vs Galatasaray | ⭐ Under 3.5 goals | 1.50+ |
| 20:00 | 🇹🇷 Esenler Erokspor vs Keçiörengücü | Keçiörengücü +0.5 (win or draw) | 1.95+ |
| 21:00 | 🇫🇷 Le Havre vs Paris Saint-Germain | Under 3.5 goals | 2.00+ |
| 22:30 | 🇩🇪 Elversberg vs Mainz | Under 3.5 goals | 1.75+ |
| 23:00 | 🇪🇸 Villarreal vs Espanyol | ⭐ Under 3.5 goals | 1.70+ |
| 23:05 | 🇫🇷 Lille vs Lens | Under 2.5 goals | 2.00+ |
| 23:15 | 🇵🇹 Casa Pia vs Sporting CP | ⭐ Under 3.5 goals | 1.55+ |
👔 Managers: İlhan Palut (since February 2026) vs Okan Buruk.
🩺 Team news: Konyaspor are without Adil Demirbağ (cruciate ligament); Melih İbrahimoğlu's status is disputed. Galatasaray's Abdülkerim Bardakcı is suspended, and Kaan Ayhan and Kazımcan Karataş aren't in the travelling squad. Leão and Günay are travelling.
🔍 Our read: Konya have let in just one goal in their last five league games (8 points). Galatasaray have won three in a row, but a tight, low-scoring away win looks more likely than a rout, and Bardakcı's ban takes away a big handicap angle.
| Our fair price | 1.40 |
| Minimum price we'd take | 1.50 |
| Score forecast | Konyaspor 0–1 Galatasaray |
💸 Market: Betfair: 1.54
📊 Polymarket (at time of writing): GS 56¢ · Konya 21¢ (match result)
👔 Managers: Hikmet Karaman (appointed 10 September) vs Osman Zeki Korkmaz (since July).
🩺 Team news: Neither side has a reliable current absence list, so treat this one with caution.
🔍 Our read: Keçiörengücü have 20 points from 12 games and recent away wins at Bodrum and Karagümrük. They just lost 2–4 to Bursaspor, but their road form says they can take something here.
| Our fair price | — |
| Minimum price we'd take | 1.95 |
| Score forecast | 1–1 |
💸 Market: Betfair: Keçiörengücü or draw 1.94
📊 Polymarket (at time of writing): draw 24¢ + Keçiörengücü 24¢ ≈ 48¢ (≈2.08)
👔 Managers: Didier Digard vs Luis Enrique.
🩺 Team news: Le Havre miss Mpasi, Zagadou and Mambimbi; Jelert and Pembélé are doubts. PSG are without Kvaratskhelia, Dembélé, Marquinhos and Nuno Mendes, and Godts missed training for personal reasons.
🔍 Our read: PSG have won five league games in a row; Le Havre are still winless, although they came back from 4–0 down to lose 4–3 at Marseille. With PSG's forwards missing we don't expect a goal-fest, but a 3–1 is the obvious danger, so this is a lower-confidence play.
| Our fair price | 1.85 |
| Minimum price we'd take | 2.00 |
| Score forecast | Le Havre 0–3 PSG |
💸 Market: Sportsbook: 2.00 · 1X2 11.00 / 6.60 / 1.31
📊 Polymarket (at time of writing): Under 3.5 at 51¢ (≈1.96)
👔 Managers: Vincent Wagner vs Urs Fischer.
🩺 Team news: Elversberg have Gyamerah, Zimmerschied and Darvich flagged. Mainz confirm Kohr and Silas out; Ruoppi has a knee problem.
🔍 Our read: Both teams have 10 points and both lost 2–0 in the cup this week. Fischer has talked about getting compact again, which points to fewer goals than the market expects. Elversberg like to attack though, so this under is fragile.
| Our fair price | 1.65 |
| Minimum price we'd take | 1.75 |
| Score forecast | Elversberg 1–2 Mainz |
💸 Market: Betfair: 1.75 · 1X2 3.25 / 4.00 / 2.24
📊 Polymarket (at time of writing): Under 3.5 at 57¢ (≈1.75)
👔 Managers: Iñigo Pérez vs Sergio García on the touchline (new boss Eder Sarabia is suspended; Manolo González was sacked).
🩺 Team news: Villarreal's Pape Gueye is suspended; Saliba and Akhomach are out. Espanyol miss Jofre and Kike García.
🔍 Our read: Villarreal still have attacking options, but no Gueye or Saliba thins out their midfield. Espanyol just changed coach and their caretaker has had little time with them. Expect a home win, but not by a big margin.
| Our fair price | 1.60 |
| Minimum price we'd take | 1.70 |
| Score forecast | Villarreal 2–0 Espanyol |
💸 Market: Betfair: 1.71 · 1X2 1.46 / 5.30 / 7.40
📊 Polymarket (at time of writing): Under 3.5 at 59¢ (≈1.69)
👔 Managers: Davide Ancelotti (replaced Bruno Génésio) vs Yannick Cahuzac (since Dino Toppmöller left in September).
🩺 Team news: Lille's Nianzou is suspended; Tiago Santos, Igamane and Ueda are out. Sahraoui is available. Lens confirm Édouard, Nawrocki and Ganiou out; Sima's status is unclear.
🔍 Our read: The Derby du Nord. Lens have won three straight league games; Lille are unbeaten at home but drew their last two. Missing attackers on both sides point to a low-scoring game, although Nianzou's ban weakens that argument a little.
| Our fair price | 1.90 |
| Minimum price we'd take | 2.00 |
| Score forecast | Lille 1–1 Lens |
💸 Market: Betfair: 2.02 · 1X2 2.86 / 3.60 / 2.68
📊 Polymarket (at time of writing): Under 2.5 at 44¢ (≈2.27)
👔 Managers: Filipe Coelho vs Rui Borges.
🩺 Team news: Casa Pia are only without André Gomes; Sebastián Pérez trained normally. Sporting have Zalazar and Debast flagged, and Nuno Santos is out.
🔍 Our read: Casa Pia have scored just five league goals in nine games but have kept two clean sheets in a row. Borges has admitted Sporting struggle against low blocks, and Coelho's plan is to frustrate them early. Sporting should win, but not easily.
| Our fair price | 1.45–1.50 |
| Minimum price we'd take | 1.55 |
| Score forecast | Casa Pia 0–2 Sporting |
💸 Market: Sportsbook: 1.57 · 1X2 12.00 / 6.00 / 1.31
📊 Polymarket (at time of writing): Sporting 76¢ · Under 2.5 at 40¢
18+ · Fair prices are our own estimates, not a guarantee. Check line-ups and the latest price before kick-off. Please gamble responsibly.
