| TRT | Match | Pick | Min. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20:30 | 🇮🇹 Frosinone vs Lecce | Frosinone to win | 1.73 |
| 22:45 | 🏴 Everton vs Newcastle United | Newcastle to win | 3.10 |
| 22:45 | 🇮🇹 Fiorentina vs Atalanta | Over 2.5 goals | 1.65 |
👔 Managers: Massimiliano Alvini vs Eusebio Di Francesco.
🩺 Team news: Frosinone are only without Grillitsch (groin); Bîrligea, Terzić and Hasa are all in the squad. Lecce are missing Pierotti, Coulibaly, Ilić and Berisha, and centre-back Kialonda Gaspar is suspended. Tiago Gabriel, Ndaba, N'Dri and Fatah travel despite fitness concerns.
🔍 Our read: Frosinone are flying: eight goals in their last two league games and three home wins in a row, with Calò creating chances for fun (29 so far). Lecce have three points from their last four and are short in midfield and at the back. One warning: Frosinone allow 19.3 shots a game and just drew 4–4 at Atalanta, so we're backing the win, not a clean sheet.
| Our estimate | 61% |
| Fair odds | 1.64 |
| Minimum price we'd take | 1.73 |
| Confidence | Medium |
| Score forecast | Frosinone 2–1 Lecce |
💸 Market: Betfair Exchange: 1.73 · 1.75 seen elsewhere
📊 Polymarket (at time of writing): Frosinone 51¢ (≈1.96)
👔 Managers: David Moyes vs Matthias Jaissle (succeeded Eddie Howe in August).
🩺 Team news: Everton have three question marks: Branthwaite (concussion), Grealish (illness) and Mykolenko (knock). Newcastle are without Livramento and Jaouen, with Miley and Fernández-Pardo doubtful. No suspensions.
🔍 Our read: Everton have lost 2–0 to both Chelsea and Arsenal. Tough opponents, so it isn't a collapse, but the defensive doubts and a possible Grealish absence worry us. Newcastle won 2–0 at Palace and Jaissle says he'll play his strongest side. It's a cup tie, so this is the least certain of our three.
| Our estimate | 35% |
| Fair odds | 2.86 |
| Minimum price we'd take | 3.10 |
| Confidence | Low–Medium |
| Score forecast | Everton 1–2 Newcastle |
💸 Market: Betfair Exchange: 2.20 / 3.65 / 3.20
Alternative: Under 3.5 goals at 1.55+ (market currently around 1.45)
📊 Polymarket (at time of writing): Newcastle 30¢ (≈3.33)
👔 Managers: Paolo Vanoli (back since 7 September, replacing Fabio Grosso) vs Maurizio Sarri (appointed June).
🩺 Team news: Fiorentina are without Pongračić, Ranieri, Atta and Parisi. Atalanta's list is long: Scamacca, Bellanova, Kolašinac, Raspadori, Kessié, Pompei, Kossounou and Hien. Scalvini and Sulemana are back in the squad.
🔍 Our read: Look at the defenders missing: Pongračić and Ranieri for Fiorentina; Hien, Kossounou, Kolašinac and Bellanova for Atalanta. Both still have plenty up front: Pellegrino and Mastantuono on one side, Krstović and De Ketelaere on the other. Goals at both ends look a safer bet than picking a winner.
| Our estimate | 65% |
| Fair odds | 1.54 |
| Minimum price we'd take | 1.65 |
| Confidence | Medium |
| Score forecast | Fiorentina 2–2 Atalanta |
💸 Market: Betfair Exchange: Over 2.5 at 1.66 · BTTS Yes 1.57 (we'd want 1.70+)
📊 Polymarket (at time of writing): Over 2.5 at 61¢ (≈1.64)
✅ Fiorentina–Atalanta Over 2.5: 1.65 minimum
✅ Newcastle to win: 3.10 minimum, smaller stake (cup tie + team-news doubts)
18+ · Probabilities are subjective estimates, not a guarantee. Odds change quickly. Please gamble responsibly.
